Drop Rate Conspiracy

[theironbank 2]

This idea has been brewing in my head since I’ve gone 1600+ kraken kills dry with 0 tridents and 0 tents to my name. Mind you this is with a 22.5% dr bonus as well. 
 

I pose this: 

THEY ARE LYING TO YOU ABOUT DROP RATES!

That is to say, the drop rate you see in the drop viewer is FALLACIOUS and WRONG!

It is in my opinion that they were changed somewhere along the way for certain bosses to reflect how easy it is to kill that boss. Kraken for instance is very afk and is one of the most killed bosses yet it seems to be a trend that the trident and tents are hard to come by. Shouldn’t they be common? Same goes with the thermonuclear smoke devil. The drop rate for an occult necklace seems way lower than it actually is.

 

what do you guys think? Grand conspiracy? Bold lies? Or is it just bad rng for most people on kraken in some weird statistical fluke? 

[Iron Logic 910]

I think there is just some misunderstanding for some players.

The way the drop tables are layed out, take zulrah for instance, there are a bunch of 1 in 300 drops, so you expect to see them commonly. But they are actually all on the same 1 in 300 roll. 

Players just get unlucky.

I spoke to Ryan about the drop table examiner ages ago, and he says the items and the drop rates are pulled from the same database as the monsters giving you the drops. With a very limited amount of exceptions. 

[Sydpreme 29]

it's literally just rng and for a 1/300 drop or so you can be pretty unlucky

[theironbank 2]

15 hours ago, Iron Logic said:

I think there is just some misunderstanding for some players.

The way the drop tables are layed out, take zulrah for instance, there are a bunch of 1 in 300 drops, so you expect to see them commonly. But they are actually all on the same 1 in 300 roll. 

Players just get unlucky.

I spoke to Ryan about the drop table examiner ages ago, and he says the items and the drop rates are pulled from the same database as the monsters giving you the drops. With a very limited amount of exceptions. 

Yeah I get that so for kraken you get the trident and the tent on the same roll so it’s more like a 1 in 600 to get a specific one. That doesn’t explain why I haven’t hit the 1 in 240 after luck bonus in over 1750 kills lol. That is so highly improbable that it can really only be explained by having drop rates be different than they are 

[RogueMX 123]

Each kill you have a 1/x chance to get the drop. Killing 10 doesn't make it a 10/x drop each roll is a 1/x. No conspiracy, just bad luck 

[theironbank 2]

18 hours ago, RogueMX said:

Each kill you have a 1/x chance to get the drop. Killing 10 doesn't make it a 10/x drop each roll is a 1/x. No conspiracy, just bad luck 

I get that. But go to a probability calculator and plug in 1 in 240 x 2 x 1750 = a 90% chance at 1.1k and a 96% + at 1750 drops. That is absurd considering that multiple people have gone 1750 dry, especially when a lot of those people (like myself) have used a row (I) and slay emblems on task for every kill.

[RogueMX 123]

Unlucky m8

[aphd 1]

2 hours ago, theironbank said:

I get that. But go to a probability calculator and plug in 1 in 240 x 2 x 1750 = a 90% chance at 1.1k and a 96% + at 1750 drops. That is absurd considering that multiple people have gone 1750 dry, especially when a lot of those people (like myself) have used a row (I) and slay emblems on task for every kill.

Each drop is independent so it really is just poor luck

[RawrUwU 9]

@theironbank

Not gonna try to take any sides if its bad rng or wrong numbers since I can't look at the database its no use tryna argue. However here is my log atleast so here atleast some data

http://prntscr.com/rbia7d

 

So if you take my 39 drops (Trident and kraken tents) my drop rate (with Row I + emblems atleast 75% of the time) my rate is 1/215
And on the pets its 1/524 for the time being. 
The rates themself can change at anytime tho if I go on a lucky streak or drystreak

Edited March 4, 2020 by RawrUwU